Why are people so obsessed with following numbers? The reason is defensive. If you follow the numbers, you follow the herd and odds are that you won’t come unstuck. And if the bubble bursts, you won’t be alone. But following historical data is no guide to the future. The best case scenario is growth that matches your sector.

The alternative is to become a creator of data. Be someone who is aware of all the numbers but just says “what the heck, we’ll do it anyway.” Examples? Almost any entrepreneur you can think of. Including a group of brave thinkers, back in 1898, who sensed the potential of bottled water. It was Dr Perrier of course, with some sparkling ideas from St John Harmsworth and Gustave Leven. They thought that spring water sold with a provenance and ‘50 million bubbles’ just might work, even though the French, at the time, were much more interested in drinking wine, beer and absinthe. Et voila, an entrepreneurial hunch becomes a global institution.